By Solomos Solomou
Utilizing information from Britain, France, Germany, the U.S., and the area economic climate among 1850 and 1973, this publication provides a transparent and systematic exam of the facts for long term styles of monetary development. the writer refutes the lifestyles of lengthy (Kondratieff) waves during monetary improvement, and as a substitute offers persuasive facts for a progress trend characterised via episodic lengthy swing fluctuations of twenty to thirty years, documenting and explaining those levels in a ancient viewpoint.
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Extra info for Phases of Economic Growth, 1850–1973: Kondratieff Waves and Kuznets Swings
Although the high growth of the 1950s and 1960s was partly catching-up growth, making up for the losses of 1899-1928 and 1938-52, the high-growth path of the postwar period was more than a catching-up process - even by the 1960s and early 1970s the growth rates observed were much higher than long-run historical trends. Labour productivity trends also vindicate the trend acceleration perspective for the twentieth century. The slow productivity growth of 1899-1928 was reversed during the 1930s, with a productivity growth above pre-1899 trends.
One way to test this would be to take the proportion of years of prosperity to years of depression within the long wave. However, this implies that all cycles designated by turning points are comparable units of similar amplitudes and rates of change. Since this is not necessarily so, a more valid test would be to calculate the actual rates of change over complete Juglar phases; this has the additional advantage of preventing non-comparable growth measures from generating statistical artefacts; moreover, a priori information about the long wave is not required.
2 The only statistically significant growth variation over 1856—1913 is the transition to a lowgrowth phase during the Edwardian era. 4 The GDP series measured from the output side shows very low long-term variation; the whole period 1856—1913 is best represented as following a steady growth path. 5 Two reasons have been given for this linearity. Firstly, the extensive use of linear interpolation in the construction of the series may be generating the artefact of steady growth. 6 Given this bias the output estimate is the least suited for analysing either the issue of the Kuznets swing or the Edwardian climacteric.
Phases of Economic Growth, 1850–1973: Kondratieff Waves and Kuznets Swings by Solomos Solomou