New PDF release: Strategy Malaysia 2011

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Group asset quality and growth momentum have been stronger than anticipated. 9x given the strong capital markets. (set on 8 Nov 10)  Catalysts  We expect decent FY11 loan growth albeit with NIM squeeze We expect GFY10F loan growth of 14% for the group, led by a strong 23% y-y growth at CIMB Niaga and a 15% expansion in domestic consumer loans. Corporate loans, however, are expected to lag at 8% y-y. The key drivers for FY11F growth of 13% will still be Indonesia and domestic consumers, particularly the mortgage segment.

Continued contraction of the legal tobacco industry volumes, weaker margins following the small-pack ban, and stiff competition for a shrinking pie, remain key negative themes for the industry. We like BAT for its strong management, ability to execute and decent dividend yield (5-6% historically). However, we think that poor industry fundamentals make it hard to justify the recent run-up in valuations (close to 19x P/E in October). 7% in 2009) – mainly on higher selling prices (annual excise duty hikes by the government) and consistently high illicit trade.

S et on 26 Oct 10) Capital management, operational improvement in cellular and broadband metrics stand as potential catalysts.  Conservative guidance with capital management? 8x net-debt/equity target. However, moving ahead, in the absence of another capital management in FY11, its gearing could fall below target. As a result, we expect Digi to maintain its capital management initiatives over the medium term, despite a relatively more cautious tone from management. Maintain BUY. 48 1. 56 Norm.

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Strategy Malaysia 2011 by Nomura


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