Asuka Suzuki-Parker's Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical PDF

By Asuka Suzuki-Parker

ISBN-10: 3642250289

ISBN-13: 9783642250286

ISBN-10: 3642250297

ISBN-13: 9783642250293

The thesis paintings used to be in significant components: improvement and checking out of a brand new method of detecting and
tracking tropical cyclones in weather versions; and alertness of an severe price statistical method of
enable evaluate of adjustments in climate extremes from weather versions.
The monitoring set of rules utilized an inventive phase-space method of differentiate among modeled tropical
cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A characteristic right here used to be the cautious consciousness to sensitivity to collection of
selection parameters, that is massive. the main discovering was once that the adjustments over the years have been
relatively insensitive to those info. This new method will increase and upload self belief to destiny
assessments of weather affects on hurricanes.
The extremes process applied the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the normal methods to
statistics of extremes) utilized to give and destiny typhoon distributions as modeled by way of a neighborhood
climate version, then utilized the alterations to present observations to extract the adjustments within the extremes.
Since weather versions can't unravel those extremes at once, this offers a good approach to
determining climate extremes commonly. this is often of substantial societal value as we're such a lot
vulnerable to such extremes and information in their alterations allows stronger making plans and model
strategies.

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Krishnamurti T, Correa-Torres R, Latif M, Daughenbaugh G (1998) The impact of current and possibly future sea surface temperature anomalies on the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. Tellus A 50(2):186–210 11. Murakami H, Wang B (2010) Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Clim 23:2699–2721 12. Oouchi K, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Mizuta R, Kusunoki S, Noda A (2006) Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmosphere model: frequency and wind intensity analysis.

In addition, we noted some possible upscale impacts associated with two-way nesting, with more frequent North Indian Ocean cyclogenesis and an increased blocking pattern in southeastern Australia. However, it is not clear whether these changes are indeed as a result of upscale impact from two-way nesting, or simply reflecting the model’s sensitivity to initial conditions. The simulated TC wind-pressure relation is close to observations for weaker storms, but the coarse model resolution results in a low wind speed bias for stronger storms and major hurricane intensities do not occur.

1 Summary of simulated TC statistics from NRCM NRCM current climate Annual frequency TC duration (days) Lifetime max. intensity (m/s) Radious of max. wind (km) Mean STD Sig. level Mean STD Sig. level Mean STD Sig. level Mean STD Sig. level is statistical significance level of changes from current climate simulation using Student’s T-test The simulated TC frequency increases in the future for each of these criteria (Fig. 8). A more detailed examination on interannual time scales is shown in Fig.

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Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones by Asuka Suzuki-Parker


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